Saturday, December 19, 2009
हक़ीक़त
नाकामी की चोट खा सिसकती हकीक़त
थक हार बोह्झिल हो खुद मे सिमटती हकीक़त
हो कर बेजार इस अपने नसीब की बेवफाई से
हक़ीक़ती मुकाम के लिए तरसती बेबस हकीक़त
अरमानो की बंद कोठरी मे पड़ी बदहवास हक़ीक़त
किस्मत के वहशी पिंजरे मे क़ैद हक़िक़त
रोजमरा की हाथापाई से लहुलुहान होती हक़िक़त
छुड़ा खुद को इस कुदरत के दरिंदे पंजे से
हक़िक़त बनने को मचलती हक़िक़त
- गजेंद्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Of Recession, GDP growth, Inflation and Black Swans
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Quotes from Douglas Adams
- Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesn't it?
- If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a non-working cat.
- The trouble with most forms of transport, he thought, is basically that not one of them is worth all the bother. On Earth – when there had been an Earth, before it was demolished to make way for a new hyperspace bypass – the problem had been with cars. The disadvantages involved in pulling lots of black sticky slime from out of the ground where it had been safely hidden out of harm's way, turning it into tar to cover the land with, smoke to fill the air with and pouring the rest into the sea, all seemed to outweigh the advantages of being able to get more quickly from one place to another – particularly when the place you arrived at had probably become, as a result of this, very similar to the place you had left, i.e. covered with tar, full of smoke and short of fish.
- I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by.
- Time is an illusion, lunchtime doubly so.
- Anything that happens, happens. Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen causes something else to happen. Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen happens again. All of this, however, doesn't necessarily happen in chronological order.
- "Life! Don't talk to me about life." (Marvin)
- "What to do if you find yourself stuck with no hope of rescue: Consider yourself lucky that life has been good to you so far. Alternatively, if life hasn't been good to you so far, which given your present circumstances seems more likely, consider yourself lucky that it won't be troubling you much longer."
- It's funny how just when you think life just can't possibly get any worse it suddenly does. (Marvin)
- Life, loathe it or ignore it, you can't like it. (Marvin)
- There is a theory which states that if anybody ever discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
- I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
- In those days spirits were brave, the stakes were high, men were real men, women were real women and small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri were real small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri.
- The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't.
- You live and learn. At any rate, you live.
- Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
- He felt that his whole life was some kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.
- Nothing travels faster than the speed of light with the possible exception of bad news, which obeys its own special laws.
- The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair.
- Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.
- The idea that Bill Gates has appeared like a knight in shining armour to lead all customers out of a mire of technological chaos neatly ignores the fact that it was he, by peddling second-rate technology, who led them into it in the first place.
- Bypasses are devices that allow some people to dash from point A to point B very fast while other people dash form point B to point A very fast. People living at point C, being a point directly in between, are often given to wonder what's so great about point A that so many people from point B are so keen to get there, and what's so great about point B that so many people from point A are so keen to get there. They often wish that people would just once and for all decide where the hell they wanted to be.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
मेरी गाड़ी छुटी जा रही थी
पर वो और भी दूर जा रही थी
मानो सीटी बजा बजा कर मुझे चिड़ा रही थी
कोशिश तो की बहुत मैंने उस तक पहुँचने की
पर फिर भी मेरी ट्रेन छुटी जा रही थी|
नहीं मिलेगी वो किसी अगले प्लेटफोर्म पर
यह तो मुसाफिर के दिल ने भी जाना है
पर एक मजबूर मुसाफिर को तो बस चलते जाना है
चाहे गाड़ी छुटने की टीस रह जायेगी हमेशा के लिए
पर अगली ट्रेन पकड़ अपनी मंजिल तक पहुँच जाना है|
गाड़ी को कहा होती है परवाह अधर में अटके मुसाफिर की
उसे भी तो बस बिन रुके चलते जाना होता है
मुसाफिर के लिए छूटती गाड़ी की बैचैनी को भुलाना नहीं आसान होता है
पर गाड़ी को कहा चिंता है उस मुसाफिर की बेचैनी क़ी
उसे तो बस अपने चुनिंदा मुसाफिरो के साथ चलते जाना होता है|
किसी रोज एक दिन जब एक ऐसा स्टेशन आएगा
सब मुसाफिर छोड़ गाड़ी को बढ़ जाएगे अपनी मंज़िल की और
और जब गाड़ी लौटेगी अकेले अपने गंतव्य की और
शायद सोचेगी वो भी उस बिछड़े मुसाफिर के बारे मे
जो शायद चलता उसके साथ अंतिम पड़ाव की और|
Friday, June 19, 2009
साथ के मुसाफिर
पर अब और दूर जा ना सकेगे
शायद इतना ही होना था सफर साथ में
जो मंजिल की झलक भी पा ना सकेगे|
ओ साथ के मुसाफिर यु ही भूल ना जाना
इन गलियों को जिन पर तू चला था
माना तीन दिन में भूलना तेरी आदत है
पर अपने निशाँ इन रहो पर जरूर छोड़ जाना|
बेखबरी और आवारगी के आलम में
जब भी फ़िर गुजरूँगा उनही गलियों से
देख वक्त के साथ शीण होते उन निशानों को
शायद याद कर लूँगा साथ कटे उस सफर को|
Monday, May 04, 2009
Into the Wild Again : Trek to Brahmagiri
Having done small treks quite a number of times in past few days, I was looking for some "real" trek from quite some time. Last "real" trek I did was "Kudremukh", with the memory of all the horrible leeches and slippery terrain and what not. So when Arun asked me if I wanted to join for a trek to Chembra peak, I immediately agreed but was skeptical that it could be a bit too easy (another one day trek). After some discussions we arrived on a consensus for Brahmagiri (located near Coorg). Brahmagiri had been on our radar for quite sometime but somehow it didn't materialize so far. As always happens for any of our trek, some people joined in at last moment and some ditched, effectively leaving a group of six people just like last time. Out of these six three of us (Arun, Nidhan and I) were also part of the group that went to Kudremukh while three new persons (Shruti, Tejal and Ravindra) joined us. As expected Nidhan's fascination for the name Ravi made him really happy when Ravindra joined.
After all the preparation was done (which was not so difficult this time given our prior experience), we started from KSRTC Mysore Satellite Bus stand for Gonikoppal. We reached there at 4:30 am in the morning and had to wait for half an hour to take the bus for Virajpet, where we had booked the guest house. We relaxed there for couple of hours and had some heavy breakfast. At around 9:00 am Arun, Nidhan, Ravi and I (Gajendra) left for forest officer's office to seek permission for trekking whereas Shruti and Tejal stayed at Guest house. We were ready with the permissions and a guide by 10:30 am. So we started our journey for Irupu falls (the first stop for us). We stayed there only for 15-20 mins and then started our exciting journey for the peak.
Thanks to the excellent group we had become, the time just flew by. We reached the mid point much before we had planned, ate some stuff and started for the forest ranger's guest house. We reached there at 2:30 p m much before our own expectations. We relaxed there for sometime and by 3:30 pm we thought we had enough time to go to Brahmagiri peak and return. So instead of going to Nirmala peak, we directly started for Brahmagiri. Since till this point only there is deep forest and abovethis there are grasslands, we were worried a little about sun. I wished that if there were few drops of rain, just enough to cool the weather but yet not make it slippery, it would be great and there it was. It seemed like god had all of a sudden decided to consider very few good deeds we had ever done and reward us for it then and there itself. The moment we started, those wonderful drops full of life and energy were waiting for us. The weather was so good and atmosphere was so full of pure oxygen making our oxygen deficient lungs so elated that not remembering our trekking anthem "Run Maadi Run" was impossible. So Nidhan and I decided to run a bit and soon left other four far behind. By the time we realized, we had already taken a wrong trail, which led us at the peak of another hill (Brahmagiri was still visible far away) with the descend that was so steep that the moment we looked at it we were sure that we were on the wrong trail. The reason being that if this were the correct path, its unlikely that even 5 out of 25 could make it to the top. Somehow we managed to descend and then ascend again to reach on the right trail leading to the summit of our ultimate destination, the Brahmagiri peak. We looked at the watch and it was 4:23 pm. Run Maadi feeling was still so prevalent in our minds that Nidhan set a target of 4:45 pm to reach the peak whereas I set the modest target of 5:00pm. Surprisingly, what was thought to be so difficult, we could do in 12 mins and we were on the peak by 4:35 pm itself. After about half an hour, we saw the signs of our guide and other four companions, who also climbed the peak without too much difficulty. Reaching the peak was a feeling which completely overwhelmed us and we just rejuvenated at the thought having achieved what we set out for. We had barely walked another half a km and reached near a stream, when our guide stopped us and told us that he had just now seen a tiger crossing our trail. Probably the cat might have come out to drink water from that stream. He showed us a very fresh tiger pug mark and we could still smell a typical smell (zoo kind) probably meaning that the big cat was still around. The thought of this itself passed shimmers through our spines. All of us seized talking, singing and even would have seized breathing also if it were in our hands. Thankfully our preparation was thorough and we had good enough number of torches and our guide was very experienced, which helped us find our way back to the guest house through the jungle. We all breathed a sigh of relief when we entered the concrete walls of the guest house, safe from any wild animal. We recovered from our thrills and then decided to cooksomething. We prepared noodlesand scrambled eggs with bread, which tasted excellent after the days hard work. Finally, we decided to have bonfire despite of the fear of wild cat still reigning in our minds. We sang, shared jokes and had some excellent time around the fire. As expected, Nidhan didn't miss any chance to pull Ravi's leg. After an hour or so we all slept only to wake up next day. In the morning, we made some excellent tea and scrambled egg as breakfast. In the morning also Arun spotted a wild elephant just 10m away from him. We wanted to go to Pakshipatalam to do some bird watching but later decided against it. So we started our journey to base in Virajpet, where we reached by 12:00 pm. Since we still had sometime, we decided to go to Rajiv Gandhi National Park at Nagarhole where we saw some deer, elephants, bison etc. We started our return journey from Gonikoppal. Just like my past experiences, again I was amazed by the hospitality of rural Karnataka. While sitting in the bus, those two days were still flashing before my eyes again and I was feeling a bit sad that this remarkable journey was coming to an end. On my way back, my feelings could probably be best summarized by Lord Byron's following lines: There is a pleasure in the pathless woods;
There is a rapture on the lonely shore;
There is society, where none intrudes,
By the deep sea, and music in its roar;
I love not man the less, but Nature more...
Thursday, March 26, 2009
शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।
रौशनी क्यों नजर आती नहीं
क्या मीलो लंबी है यह सुरंग
जो तारों कि भी झिलमिल नजर आती नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।
व्यर्थ ही चला जा रह हूँ मैं
कहा है जाना पता नहीं
थका हारा हूँ मैं कब से
कोई आश्रय क्यों नजर आता नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।
थकी है जगी है आंखें बहुत देर से
पर नींद फिर क्यों आती नहीं
गुजर गया है तूफ़ान
पर करार दिल को क्यों आता नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।
कहते है जिन्दगी में सब कुछ है
पर बात इसमे क्यों नजर आती नहीं
ऐसा लगता है जीवन बेवफा है
तो मौत फिर क्यों गले लगाती नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।
Sunday, March 22, 2009
ख्वाब जो ख्वाब में भी ना आया
आयेगे वोह एक दिन इस महफ़िल में ज़रुर
बस ये ही सोच कर ना जाने कब तक पलकें राह में बिछाई थी
चांदनी को भी बुलाया था सामियाने और रजाई भी मंगवाई थी
खूब बंधेगा समा जब आयेगे वोह
बस यही सोच कर जाम की प्यालिया भी भरवाई थी
किया इंतेज़ार बहुत पर उन्होंने ना आने की कसम खाई थी
बहुतो आए और जाम के प्याले खाली करचले गये
पर राह त्कते हुमने एक बूद ना होट्टो पर लगाई थी
इंतेज़ार करते करते पता ना चला कब रात ख़तम होने आई थी
व्यर्थ था ये इंतेज़ार यही सोच कर चल दिया घर की और
घर पहुँचता उससे पहले ख्वाब मेरा टूटा क्योंकि भोर होने को आई थी
Saturday, January 31, 2009
From Economic Gloom to Economic Doom
Let us do some analysis of the issue. Open any business newspaper and the first thing you will notice is that company XYZ announced 10,000 job cuts owning to bleak consumer spending forecast for next year or company ABC announced 15,000 job cuts to cut down the operational cost and boost up the profits. A close look at the solution used for a bleak consumer spending will simply reveal that by firing people companies are themselves making the future even bleaker. Say, company XYZ fires 10,000 people because it thinks that demand will go down next year but by firing 10,000 people isn't it aggravating the problem by reducing the purchasing power of 10,000 families (or roughly 40,000 people assuming avg. family size to be 4)? So over that past 1 year, the corporate America has simply pushed out 2.3 mn families (roughly 1 crore people) out of the consumer segment. Just to make the things worse, it will further create a panic among the people who have a job but will try not to spend on anything non-essential so that they can survive the bad times in case they also lose their jobs.
Now let us look at the problem from companies point of view. They claim that they are reducing the headcount to reduce their operational expenditure. I still wonder if it is really going to solve any purpose. Open ANY companies' financial statement, you will notice that employee costs are hardly a fraction of overall expenditure. So even a 20% reduction in headcount won't do any good to the company. Yesterday only in Economics Times I found the financial results of following companies and I am putting the expenditure numbers and employee costs numbers to just prove my point typically how insignificant the employee cost contribution is to the total expenditure. Though the table below shows only Indian companies and were profitable in 2008 but I am assuming that same pattern will also hold true for US companies and the cost split will remain more or less similar even for a loss making company. The companies I have mentioned below belongs to diverse sectors like Infrastructure, FMCG and Electronics etc, which means that my hypothesis that normally contribution of Employee costs to total expenditure of a company is valid across the sectors:
Company name | Total Expenditure 2008 (in Lakh INR) | Employee Costs 2008 (in Lakh INR) | Other expenditure (general/administrative expenditure) 2008 (in Lakh INR) | Ratio of Employee Cost to Total Expenditure 2008 (in Lakh INR) |
GMR INFRA | 67,136 | 7,476 | 7,672 | 0.111356053 |
Refex Refrigerents | 1,718 | 56 | 322.62 | 0.032433062 |
Bartronics India Ltd. | 10,915.02 | 646 | 1005.85 | 0.059181751 |
Daawat LT foods ltd. | 23,916.87 | 583 | 3631.4 | 0.024370246 |
Selectron EMS India Ltd. | 3,800.67 | 173 | 596.03 | 0.045489348 |
So looking at the table above, it is clear that even if these companies were to fire say 40% of their staff to save costs, they can hardly save say 4.5% of the total expenditure which, according to my opinion, can easily be saved by reducing the next column i.e. general and administrative expenses.
Now going a step further, a keen observation at the staff fired will reveal that these jobcuts are mainly for the people at lower section of company's hierarchal pyramid who are anyways not paid much. So for example, Bank of America announcing a job cut of 35,000 people over the next three years is a outright foolishness which they might regret once the markets pick up again. To prove my point, I will use some real statistics and few assumptions. My assumption is that people being fired mainly belong middle level management to employees who work at the lower level positions. I will assume that the average expenditure Bank of America incurs on these 35,000 employees is 100,000 USD per year, which is indeed a very liberal assumption cosidering that average salary of people passing out from HBS is roughly 100,000 USD per year. So the total cost savings by firing 35,000 employees over three years will be roughly 3.5 bn USD over three years. So yearly savings are roughly 1bn per year. Now how does that compare with the total salary offered to the top people of the company, I putting the following table from Bank of America's 2007 annual report:
Name | Base Salary ($) | Cash Incentive ($) | Restricted Stock ($) | Total Cash Incentive & Restricted Stock ($) | Stocks Options (#) shares | Value of stock options (as of end 2007) |
Kenneth D. Lewis (CEO) | 1,500,000 | 6,750,000 | 11,750,000 | 18,500,000 | 333,333 | 13333320 |
Joe L. Price | 800,000 | 3,245,000 | 3,955,000 | 7,200,000 | 166,667 | 6666680 |
Amy Woods Brinkley | 800,000 | 3,245,000 | 3,955,000 | 7,200,000 | 166,667 | 6666680 |
Barbara J. Desoer | 800,000 | 3,245,000 | 3,955,000 | 7,200,000 | 166,667 | 6666680 |
Liam E. McGee | 800,000 | 3,700,000 | 5,000,000 | 8,700,000 | 208,333 | 8333320 |
Brian T. Moynihan | 700,000 | 3,310,000 | 3,990,000 | 7,300,000 | 166,667 | 6666680 |
R. Eugene Taylor | 800,000 | 3,700,000 | 5,000,000 | 8,700,000 | 208,333 | 8333320 |
Total | 6,200,000 | 27,195,000 | 37,605,000 | 64,800,000 | 1,416,667 | 56,666,680 |
The table above shows that only top 7 persons of BoA were given total benefits of about 112 USD at a time when the turbulent environments were approaching. It wouldn't surprise me if top 1000 people in the organization were given total benefits of say around 1 bn USD (though I must admit these emoluments are very less when compared with some of the other CEO of companies of equal size). The table on the left shows the highest paid CEOs of 2007.
That shows how irrational it is to cut jobs to reduce the costs specially the people whose costs hardly have any impact on the company's balance sheet. I am sure these kind of actions will push not only the company but also the whole economy from gloom to doom.
Friday, January 23, 2009
And he left me.....
Sitting with me or within me
For long he stayed in my eyes and ears
waiting for me to wake up and wipe his tears.
He knew he could never become real in daylight
So he made all his attempts to disappear
Now and then he woke me up in a restless night
As if he was having pity at his and my plight.
I was too adamant not to let him disappear in disguise
Since I didn't have the heart to see him leave
Without waking up I pressed the snooze probably twice
So that I could hold him a bit longer in my sleepy eyes.
I relentlessly persuaded and tried to stop him
I shuddered and sweated from the efforts
But he, my dream, was a creation of my own whim
And at dawn he left me alone when the light was still dim.