Thursday, June 30, 2011

Renewable Energy in India - Still a long way to go

When I read the news that under Gujarat solar power policy 2009, Gujarat government is planning to set up a solar park capable of 500 Mw within two years, I really felt excited that at least one state government is thinking with a vision (click to open the link). I have always wondered why can't states like Rajasthan and Gujarat (and to some extent also Haryana & Punjab) invest heavily in wind and solar energy.

Though initially costly, they definitely can contribute greatly to reduce the high power deficit the country faces. More so for state like Rajasthan, which lack any other significant natural resources except for wind, solar energy and ofcourse 30k barrels/day of sour crude, this is a huge business opportunity. Alas, only if the state government finds time to think beyond Jat, Gujjar and Rajput reservations and agitations!

A quick look at the proposed solar park project in Gujarat shows that it is going to cost around Rs 15 cr of capex to produce a Mw of electricity. A gross estimate tells us each Mw of installed nuclear power capacity costs Rs 20 cr and traditional coal fired power capacity costs Rs 4-5 cr. This means that solar power is roughly 4 times as expensive as traditional coal fired power but 25% less costly than the nuclear power, strongly advocated by current government. As I mentioned in my previous post, I have no qualms about setting up nuclear power plants but we need to utilize all the available options optimally, which include wind, solar and also thorium based hybrid nuclear reactors, to meet our ever increasing energy demand.

Though central government has displayed some lofty ambitions in renewables through policy statements such as Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, five year plans etc, the actual exploitation of potential remains a mirage. The plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based solar power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq metres with collectors by the end of the final phase of the JNS mission in 2020 remains poorly executed. The performance in wind sector is not as abysmal and India has the fifth largest installed wind power capacity in the world but no where close to the actual potential the states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, TN and Karnataka offer.

I again stress here that if we have to match our continuously increasing energy needs, it's high time we abolish our fragmented approach to energy sector. I feel we need to abolish separate petroleum ministry, renewable ministry, coal ministry, power ministry, atomic ministry and what not and set up a responsible Energy ministry capable of taking a holistic view. If all the above mentioned ministries are essential to satisfy the "coalition dharma", how about setting up an umbrella ministry over and above these ministries that can work on all available sources under one roof. We need to develop a master-plan that provides a guideline on how we want to configure our energy basket over the next few decades with a proper mix of all easily available options.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Energy Scenarios: Juggling with the Good, Bad & Ugly

The recent events including the "Arab Spring", that continues even in the harsh middle-east summers, particularly in Libya leading to a major disruption in the supply side of the crude, recent disagreements over future course of action among OPEC nations and IEA releasing 60 million BOE into the markets to "cool off" the prices show only one thing; the future climate for energy market is going to be much more challenging and haphazard than most predicted.

Good
Everyone's long loved and admired sources of "good" energy such as wind, solar and bio-fuels are yet to take off from the ground despite all the efforts of IPCC and Greenpeace (link). While the technical feasibility of varying degrees has been demonstrated for all of them, the cost effectiveness and willingness of policy makers to make some serious efforts to promote a shift towards them remains a major question. Whatever the IPCC's report may say, I am quite not convinced that policymakers will do anything drastic to support renewables over easily and cheaply (yes you read correctly!) available crude elsewhere. However, the growth rate of renewables will continue to be impressive mainly because of a lower denominator and they will continue to be a small component of the world's energy basket.

Bad
To add to the concerns of the major governments, already grappling hard with the issues related to energy security, the recent Japan nuclear crisis has taken sheen off a major option that was available to them. The first government to respond was Germany, which decided to get away with nuclear power all together! This also leaves the plans of countries like India and China in teeters as they were banking heavily on substituting part of their growing energy demand with nuclear. I feel while some advocates will continue to support nuclear, selling it to the public will be more difficult for the governments and the growth rate of this industry will continue to limp till people forget about Japan's crisis.

Ugly
I feel the ugly/polluting fossil fuels will continue to rule the roost. Till you can dig a bore in the ground (no matter where and how deep) and tap easily palatable energy, getting away with fossils is unforeseeable. While lot of advancements such as efficiency, optimization, non-conventionals (GTL/Coal Gasification/CBM/Shale) and production enhancement technologies will improve this sector further, the carbon based economy of all the major countries will dictate the continued dominance of fossil (Oil, Gas & Coal) sector.

I feel while everyone would want to shift to the renewables completely, it is not going to happen for next several decades. The large percentage of energy demand would still be met by fossils. In such a scenario, the governments and policy makers need to focus on improving the efficiencies in this sector and support the innovation to best utilize the existing resources. As for nuclear, its a necessary devil that we have to live with but whom we can't love. Anyways, it can never be about choosing between Good, Bad or Ugly, it just about juggling with them and juggling better!

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

स्वपन

बचैनी में मचलती उस तन्हाई में
एक पीर जगती है ऐसे
शांत समंदर के पानी में
एक विकराल लहर उठी हो जैसे|

टूटेगा
यह तट भी विरह की लहरों से
सुना तो था कभी ऐसे
पर चन्द उन्मादित लहरों के अजमाने से
भला यह तट अपना सिरा छोड़ेगा कैसे|

ऊंघती सिमटती उन अंगङाईयो में
एक टीस मचती है ऐसे
कबसे बेबसी का पिंजरा तोड़
पंख फ़ैलाने को आतुर हो एक पंछी जैसे|

बाते है जरूर कुछ ऐसी जहन में
जो बस भूलती नहीं ऐसे
कब से सोया एक डरावना स्वपन
नींद से जगाने को उन्मुख हो जैसे|

-गजेन्द्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

स्मृति

कतरा कतरा यू ही वक़्त गुजर जाएगा
बीता हर एक पल याद आएगा
चला था जिन रहो पर बदहवास
वो हर कदम स्मृति को विकल कर जाएगा|

विषैले काँटे भी थे खूब रहो पर
बेजान कंकर पथर भी थे भर कर
बंजारो में बस बेआलमी में दिल लगा लिया
और कई बार गिरा भी थक हार कर|

बहुत हसीं नज़ारे भी मिले
झीलमिल सितारे भी मिले
कोसो फैली तन्हाई में भी
कुछ दूर हमदम प्यारे मिले

पर कुछ दूर तो चले आये है
शायद कुछ ही दूर और जाना है
मीलो चल चुका हूँ बेमानी रहो पर
अब तो बस मंज़िल को पाना है|