The recent events including the "Arab Spring", that continues even in the harsh middle-east summers, particularly in Libya leading to a major disruption in the supply side of the crude, recent disagreements over future course of action among OPEC nations and IEA releasing 60 million BOE into the markets to "cool off" the prices show only one thing; the future climate for energy market is going to be much more challenging and haphazard than most predicted.
Good
Everyone's long loved and admired sources of "good" energy such as wind, solar and bio-fuels are yet to take off from the ground despite all the efforts of IPCC and Greenpeace (link). While the technical feasibility of varying degrees has been demonstrated for all of them, the cost effectiveness and willingness of policy makers to make some serious efforts to promote a shift towards them remains a major question. Whatever the IPCC's report may say, I am quite not convinced that policymakers will do anything drastic to support renewables over easily and cheaply (yes you read correctly!) available crude elsewhere. However, the growth rate of renewables will continue to be impressive mainly because of a lower denominator and they will continue to be a small component of the world's energy basket.
Bad
To add to the concerns of the major governments, already grappling hard with the issues related to energy security, the recent Japan nuclear crisis has taken sheen off a major option that was available to them. The first government to respond was Germany, which decided to get away with nuclear power all together! This also leaves the plans of countries like India and China in teeters as they were banking heavily on substituting part of their growing energy demand with nuclear. I feel while some advocates will continue to support nuclear, selling it to the public will be more difficult for the governments and the growth rate of this industry will continue to limp till people forget about Japan's crisis.
Ugly
I feel the ugly/polluting fossil fuels will continue to rule the roost. Till you can dig a bore in the ground (no matter where and how deep) and tap easily palatable energy, getting away with fossils is unforeseeable. While lot of advancements such as efficiency, optimization, non-conventionals (GTL/Coal Gasification/CBM/Shale) and production enhancement technologies will improve this sector further, the carbon based economy of all the major countries will dictate the continued dominance of fossil (Oil, Gas & Coal) sector.
I feel while everyone would want to shift to the renewables completely, it is not going to happen for next several decades. The large percentage of energy demand would still be met by fossils. In such a scenario, the governments and policy makers need to focus on improving the efficiencies in this sector and support the innovation to best utilize the existing resources. As for nuclear, its a necessary devil that we have to live with but whom we can't love. Anyways, it can never be about choosing between Good, Bad or Ugly, it just about juggling with them and juggling better!
Good
Everyone's long loved and admired sources of "good" energy such as wind, solar and bio-fuels are yet to take off from the ground despite all the efforts of IPCC and Greenpeace (link). While the technical feasibility of varying degrees has been demonstrated for all of them, the cost effectiveness and willingness of policy makers to make some serious efforts to promote a shift towards them remains a major question. Whatever the IPCC's report may say, I am quite not convinced that policymakers will do anything drastic to support renewables over easily and cheaply (yes you read correctly!) available crude elsewhere. However, the growth rate of renewables will continue to be impressive mainly because of a lower denominator and they will continue to be a small component of the world's energy basket.
Bad
To add to the concerns of the major governments, already grappling hard with the issues related to energy security, the recent Japan nuclear crisis has taken sheen off a major option that was available to them. The first government to respond was Germany, which decided to get away with nuclear power all together! This also leaves the plans of countries like India and China in teeters as they were banking heavily on substituting part of their growing energy demand with nuclear. I feel while some advocates will continue to support nuclear, selling it to the public will be more difficult for the governments and the growth rate of this industry will continue to limp till people forget about Japan's crisis.
Ugly
I feel the ugly/polluting fossil fuels will continue to rule the roost. Till you can dig a bore in the ground (no matter where and how deep) and tap easily palatable energy, getting away with fossils is unforeseeable. While lot of advancements such as efficiency, optimization, non-conventionals (GTL/Coal Gasification/CBM/Shale) and production enhancement technologies will improve this sector further, the carbon based economy of all the major countries will dictate the continued dominance of fossil (Oil, Gas & Coal) sector.
I feel while everyone would want to shift to the renewables completely, it is not going to happen for next several decades. The large percentage of energy demand would still be met by fossils. In such a scenario, the governments and policy makers need to focus on improving the efficiencies in this sector and support the innovation to best utilize the existing resources. As for nuclear, its a necessary devil that we have to live with but whom we can't love. Anyways, it can never be about choosing between Good, Bad or Ugly, it just about juggling with them and juggling better!
