Coming out of the "Shell"

After long 4 years and 8 months, I bid adieu to Shell, atleast for next two years to pursue higher education at Kellogg School of Management. My journey with Shell spanned over 4 years, four assignments, 3 countries and 3 businesses covering Coal Gasification, LNG and GTL. Out of these, last year was probably most enriching experience as it gave me an opportunity to closely witness a 20 billion dollar plant, biggest so far in the industry and that exposed me to so many different aspects of a massive construction site. This site was so massive that every month steel equivalent to 2.5 Eiffel tower was being erected and the construction has been on for the past 4 years!

It has been a roller coaster ride full of fun, friendships and sporadic periods of frustrations but there is no second opinion that past four and a half years taught me a lot. It gave me the opportunity to meet so many people from so many countries that I shall always cherish it. While with Shell, I visited around 19 countries in 3 continents for leisure and business and enjoyed every bit of it. Even in my final farewell party at Pearl GTL, there were 11 nationalities in a total of 19 people who were there. During past four and a half years, I met few people whom I can never forget (even if I wish to) in a positive way.

Other thing I will always miss is the great work life balance Shell offers to its employees. It was only during my stint with Shell that I picked three of my most important hobbies which include Guitar, Tennis and Travelling. It's hard to believe that anyone having a full-time job could pick up hobbies like guitar and tennis from scratch in parallel and pursue them.

Barring few frustrating experiences, over all Shell has been a positive experience for me but now I really look forward to exploring a bigger and newer world outside my "shell".

Renewable Energy in India - Still a long way to go

When I read the news that under Gujarat solar power policy 2009, Gujarat government is planning to set up a solar park capable of 500 Mw within two years, I really felt excited that at least one state government is thinking with a vision (click to open the link). I have always wondered why can't states like Rajasthan and Gujarat (and to some extent also Haryana & Punjab) invest heavily in wind and solar energy.

Though initially costly, they definitely can contribute greatly to reduce the high power deficit the country faces. More so for state like Rajasthan, which lack any other significant natural resources except for wind, solar energy and ofcourse 30k barrels/day of sour crude, this is a huge business opportunity. Alas, only if the state government finds time to think beyond Jat, Gujjar and Rajput reservations and agitations!

A quick look at the proposed solar park project in Gujarat shows that it is going to cost around Rs 15 cr of capex to produce a Mw of electricity. A gross estimate tells us each Mw of installed nuclear power capacity costs Rs 20 cr and traditional coal fired power capacity costs Rs 4-5 cr. This means that solar power is roughly 4 times as expensive as traditional coal fired power but 25% less costly than the nuclear power, strongly advocated by current government. As I mentioned in my previous post, I have no qualms about setting up nuclear power plants but we need to utilize all the available options optimally, which include wind, solar and also thorium based hybrid nuclear reactors, to meet our ever increasing energy demand.

Though central government has displayed some lofty ambitions in renewables through policy statements such as Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, five year plans etc, the actual exploitation of potential remains a mirage. The plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based solar power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq metres with collectors by the end of the final phase of the JNS mission in 2020 remains poorly executed. The performance in wind sector is not as abysmal and India has the fifth largest installed wind power capacity in the world but no where close to the actual potential the states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, TN and Karnataka offer.

I again stress here that if we have to match our continuously increasing energy needs, it's high time we abolish our fragmented approach to energy sector. I feel we need to abolish separate petroleum ministry, renewable ministry, coal ministry, power ministry, atomic ministry and what not and set up a responsible Energy ministry capable of taking a holistic view. If all the above mentioned ministries are essential to satisfy the "coalition dharma", how about setting up an umbrella ministry over and above these ministries that can work on all available sources under one roof. We need to develop a master-plan that provides a guideline on how we want to configure our energy basket over the next few decades with a proper mix of all easily available options.

Energy Scenarios: Juggling with the Good, Bad & Ugly

The recent events including the "Arab Spring", that continues even in the harsh middle-east summers, particularly in Libya leading to a major disruption in the supply side of the crude, recent disagreements over future course of action among OPEC nations and IEA releasing 60 million BOE into the markets to "cool off" the prices show only one thing; the future climate for energy market is going to be much more challenging and haphazard than most predicted.

Good
Everyone's long loved and admired sources of "good" energy such as wind, solar and bio-fuels are yet to take off from the ground despite all the efforts of IPCC and Greenpeace (link). While the technical feasibility of varying degrees has been demonstrated for all of them, the cost effectiveness and willingness of policy makers to make some serious efforts to promote a shift towards them remains a major question. Whatever the IPCC's report may say, I am quite not convinced that policymakers will do anything drastic to support renewables over easily and cheaply (yes you read correctly!) available crude elsewhere. However, the growth rate of renewables will continue to be impressive mainly because of a lower denominator and they will continue to be a small component of the world's energy basket.

Bad
To add to the concerns of the major governments, already grappling hard with the issues related to energy security, the recent Japan nuclear crisis has taken sheen off a major option that was available to them. The first government to respond was Germany, which decided to get away with nuclear power all together! This also leaves the plans of countries like India and China in teeters as they were banking heavily on substituting part of their growing energy demand with nuclear. I feel while some advocates will continue to support nuclear, selling it to the public will be more difficult for the governments and the growth rate of this industry will continue to limp till people forget about Japan's crisis.

Ugly
I feel the ugly/polluting fossil fuels will continue to rule the roost. Till you can dig a bore in the ground (no matter where and how deep) and tap easily palatable energy, getting away with fossils is unforeseeable. While lot of advancements such as efficiency, optimization, non-conventionals (GTL/Coal Gasification/CBM/Shale) and production enhancement technologies will improve this sector further, the carbon based economy of all the major countries will dictate the continued dominance of fossil (Oil, Gas & Coal) sector.

I feel while everyone would want to shift to the renewables completely, it is not going to happen for next several decades. The large percentage of energy demand would still be met by fossils. In such a scenario, the governments and policy makers need to focus on improving the efficiencies in this sector and support the innovation to best utilize the existing resources. As for nuclear, its a necessary devil that we have to live with but whom we can't love. Anyways, it can never be about choosing between Good, Bad or Ugly, it just about juggling with them and juggling better!

स्वपन

बचैनी में मचलती उस तन्हाई में
एक पीर जगती है ऐसे
शांत समंदर के पानी में
एक विकराल लहर उठी हो जैसे|

टूटेगा यह तट भी विरह की लहरों से
सुना तो था कभी ऐसे
पर चन्द उन्मादित लहरों के अजमाने से
भला यह तट अपना सिरा छोड़ेगा कैसे|

ऊंघती सिमटती उन अंगङाईयो में
एक टीस मचती है ऐसे
कबसे बेबसी का पिंजरा तोड़
पंख फ़ैलाने को आतुर हो एक पंछी जैसे|

बाते है जरूर कुछ ऐसी जहन में
जो बस भूलती नहीं ऐसे
कब से सोया एक डरावना स्वपन
नींद से जगाने को उन्मुख हो जैसे|

-गजेन्द्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना

स्मृति

कतरा कतरा यू ही वक़्त गुजर जाएगा

बीता हर एक पल याद आएगा

चला था जिन रहो पर बदहवास

वो हर कदम स्मृति को विकल कर जाएगा|

विषैले काँटे भी थे खूब रहो पर

बेजान कंकर पथर भी थे भर कर

बंजारो में बस बेआलमी में दिल लगा लिया

और कई बार गिरा भी थक हार कर|

बहुत हसीं नज़ारे भी मिले
झीलमिल सितारे भी मिले
कोसो फैली तन्हाई में भी
कुछ दूर हमदम प्यारे मिले

पर कुछ दूर तो चले आये है

शायद कुछ ही दूर और जाना है

मीलो चल चुका हूँ बेमानी रहो पर

अब तो बस मंज़िल को पाना है|

Brasil: Beaches, Beer and Beauties (to say nothing of the Beasts!)

Among the string of interesting travels I have taken over the last year which include Turkey, Italy, Spain, Greece, Qatar and Brazil, Brazil was definitely the most stand out experience. I didn't even realize when the 17 days of planned trip got over. The negative comments regarding the security conditions, though not entirely untrue, made sure that we planned everything well. The only thing that created some problem for us was the language barrier as very few Brazilians can understand English. I found communicating here to be a bigger problem than Beijing or Shanghai.

After 21 hours of long flight from Delhi, the first leg of journey started from Rio De Janeiro, a place most known for Carnival parties and fabulous beaches full of bikini clad gorgeous women. The very first day my mobile and debit card were stolen during a street party but that wasn't enough to ruin my carnival spirit. The fervent partying spirit continued and I spent next 5 days partying on the street with a zillion strong party hungry crowd or lying on one of the most popular beaches on the planet i.e. Copacabana (and Ipanema) . The carnival parade, with its amazing colors and grand scale, was definitely a once in a lifetime experience. As always met a wide variety of interesting people coming from diverse backgrounds including one Pakistani named Hasan who immediately became a good friend again raising the same question I have always had i.e. why can't India and Pakistan be good friends if their citizens can be whenever they meet in a third country!

Manaus, the capital of Amazonas (Amazon forest) was our next destination. A city so far from Rio that it took us almost 6 hours of flying time to reach there but every minute we spent there was worth it. The jungle tour was already arranged and the moment we arrived, our guide took us to a floating jungle lodge, which was 2 hours boat ride from Manaus upstream of River Niger-the name which sounded startlingly racist to me as the river's water was black in colour due to minerals deposited at the bottom! We spent next 3 days in the quite of dense Amazon forest swimming in the river, piranha fishing, alligator spotting and most importantly rejuvenating after a five day long party in Rio. Our guide, Max, was an interesting Swiss fellow who quit his Physics university studies in favor of settling in Amazon forest, where he was married to a Brazilian girl. Throughout the trip, his passion for nature was evident. Here also met a couple of interesting Indians and Srilankan Americans. Lot of mosquito repellents we were carrying definitely helped but things were not as scary as we normally read about Amazon. The last day we saw meeting of rivers, the spot where black water of River Niger meets with the white water coming from River Solomon creating two parallel contrasting streams flowing adjacent to each other for quite sometime before they lose their individuality.

The next destination of our journey was Salvador, the capital of Bahia state. This was the place where Portuguese started and did most of the African slave trade in Brazil which gave rise to unique blend of Afro-Brazilian culture. The old city center and Afro-Brazilian museum were quite nice attractions for a stay for 3 days but the safety concerns (also echoed by fellow travelers) kept us away from the roads and bars during the night.

As our outbound flight was from Sao Paulo, we decided to spend last two days there. Being the biggest Metro city in the southern hemisphere, Sao Paulo was just like any big city with very little to do or culture to experience apart from the Sao Paulo Museum of Arts, which had a nice collection of artwork ranging from Van Gough, Degas to Picasso and other contemporary artists . The last day we had nothing much to do and spent most of the time playing 29 and visiting a Zoo!

Overall I really liked the experience and given such startling beauty of women there, definitely wouldn't mind visiting that place again :)

Why we don't need an "Aadhar"?

Dear Mr. PM,

I am writing this to bring to your notice a matter of serious concern which has been conspicuously not taken up enough by mainstream media. While I have great respect for your vision, acumen and capabilities, I feel the confines of Z+ security at Race Course road has somewhat taken you away from the common man of India. Few months back, you quietly handed the first Aadhar ID to a bunch of poor Indians thinking you have found the panacea of all the problems facing the country today. You, on suggestion of few individuals equally disengaged from ground realities (read Nandan Nilekani), assumed that a 12 digit number would solve all the problems like corruption, poverty and hunger that face this country. While you were busy visualizing ways this 12 digit number could help in elimination of corruption, people like A Raja, Kalmadi and ISRO officials were busy creating scams running into 12 digits right under your nose. I am pretty sure, your 12 digit "Aadhar" has no aadhar to tackle this kind of rampant corruption. I find Aadhar to be grossly misleading, dangerous and a big blow to exchequer for the following reasons:

Panacea for all evils:

The biggest justification given to Aadhar is that it can stop the pilferage in Public Distribution System (PDS). There is no denying that poor don't receive allotted food grains, benefits under Govt. schemes etc as expected but that is not only because of lack of identity. In-fact if you travel to villages, you will find that large majority of poor people do have identities like Ration Cards, BPL cards, Voter ID card etc but the PDS distributors/NREGA coordinators don't give them their full entitlements. Basically, they get their signatures/thumb impressions on much inflated quantities/amounts, where the excess is sold in black market/their pockets. Even if you provide these people with Aadhar, they will end up being the victim just like they have been so far. The way to address this issues is not creating a new ID but making the grievance addressing mechanism stronger, where even a poor guy can complain and get action done against the corrupt officials if he/she is not given his/her due.

Wastage of Public Money:

Election commission of India started issuing voter ID cards over a decade back and still is not rolled out completely. Even where it is rolled out, there are major errors in the data. My card spells my name wrongly, whereas each of my family members has some or other mistakes in their cards including date of birth, address etc. Despite being educated and informed, I couldn't get my voter ID card rectified. What makes you believe that Aadhar will be different? Will it not be one of those mammoth projects that never achieved what they were set out for?

Countries like UK, Australia etc. have tried similar projects in past but concluded them to be infeasible. What makes you think that we would be any different given the much bigger size of our country and much lesser per capita resource available to Govt.?

If we have to utilize all the advertised benefits of Aadhar, we will have to put in place huge infrastructure in place such as millions of biometric scanners, thousands of micro ATMs and internet connectivity at every point where Aadhar will be verified. Is India currently in a position to undertake these kind of investments when we don't have adequate roads, metros, fly-overs and electricity in all homes?

A rough calculation shows that if each PDS shop were to utilize Aadhar identification for disbursing grains, they will have to shelve out roughly 2.5 Lakh rupees. Do you really think those people can afford that kind of money without extracting even more profit through black-marketing? Basically you are giving them more motive to be dishonest.

No project feasibility study was ever taken, no cost benefit analysis done (atleast to public's knowledge) and national debate held in parliament. Never in my professional life have I seen a project even above 1 Million dollars go to the execution stage without a feasibility study, brainstorming and discussions. Here we are undertaking a project worth billions without any such study.

Identity/Privacy Issues:

In a country as diverse as ours, there is a very high probability of Aadhar being misused by the ruling Governments against certain sections of society. While I agree that post independence so far we have been lucky enough to have a fully functional democratic setup, thus precluding such incidents from happening but that is no surety for future. If we ever have a totalitarian regime in the future, Aadhar can be used for catastrophic end results. Who would have thought of Jews persecution in Germany by Hitler in early 20th century, say 1901 AD.

A few key strokes will yield complete lists of males, females, Muslim, Christian and Hindus in that district. Imagine this information getting into the wrong hands. The argument will be but Aadhaar database does not include religion. Is it not possible to get around this by searching the database using names for example names like Raman, Rehman or Raymonds? This can be extremely dangerous to say the least.

How can the system protect ‘Identity theft’ in such a vast population? One of the major issues in the western world is identity theft. Even in countries with a fraction of the population numbers of India, there are fraudulent people drawing government pensions and social security benefits for years using dead people's IDs. Identity theft is an international issue and a thesis can be written on the topic.

Does being a ‘poor’ person in India leave him or her unprotected from all issues related to invasion of their privacy? (This topic is best left to legal experts on privacy and human rights issues.)?

I know 7 Race course is too far for my voice to be heard so I have put it in my blog.

Regards,
Gajendra

And let the game begin.....

Finally the time has come for a tournament that can make the hearts of a country of 1 billion to skip a beat. Yes, the time for ICC World Cup has arrived and for the first time in the foreseeable history, India truly have a world class team that can take any opposition head on! With their current ranking of No. 1 and No. 2 in ICC Test and ODI rankings respectively, they definitely stand the strongest odds they have ever had in the history of this tournament. Added with the decline of other teams such as Australia and Pakistan, its a golden chance for India to reclaim the much loved trophy after 28 years of drought.

The other reason that makes this world cup so special is that it, in all likelihood, will be the last world cup for Sachin Tendulkar, the legend who has been part of 5 Indian World Cup squads but for whom the coveted cup has so far been been elusive. Considering the contributions Sachin has made to this game, nothing can be more befitting tribute than a World Cup trophy for this batting genius. Sachin has a tremendous record in World Cup tournaments and in addition to a WC trophy for this legend, my personal wishlist would also include 4 more centuries from him.

Stage is set, the start has been made. Two warm-up matches won easily and a cakewalk win against minnows Bangladesh are good omens so far! Go Team India, nation of 1 billion wants you to bring back the cup to the place where it rightly belong.

India, India, India.......

Of Qatar, Turkey and much more.......

Here comes my post after a long time. It was my new year resolution to write more often but you know, new year resolutions are made to be broken. Past few months have been extremely busy while doing nothing and as always, there is not enough time to do all the nothing we want to do. Over the last one year, I moved to another assignment in Qatar, which is turning out to be a great learning experience. While the monotonous camp life left me craving for some normal human life in a normal human urban agglomeration, the shift rotation of six weeks on and two weeks off gave me the much needed time to travel around.

I used this opportunity to travel to Turkey, which was a tremendous experience. Having lived in an Islamic state like Qatar, I was amazed to find the liberal attitude in Turkey. A perfect blend of modernity with traditional values. I traveled to Istanbul, Fathiye, Cappadoccia and Antalaya. The cultural heritage in Istanbul was impressive whereas the natural beauty of Fathiye was breathtaking. One remarkable thing I noticed was that the average beauty of Turkish women is highest amongst the countries I have visited so far.

Later in the year, I had a two week long eurotrip. Going back to Europe after so long was real nice and I enjoyed every bit of it. I traveled to Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, Venice and Athens in that order. While Barcelona was really a beautiful city, Madrid had its own charm. Watching the works of likes of Picasso and Rafael during the day and the happening nightlife is all what a person can ask for during a holiday.

Similar was the case with Rome, which had so much to see that 3 days were just not enough. Managed to attend the Sunday mass at Vatican, where I saw and heard Pope during is weekly appearance. The museum at Vatican was amazing with real ancient antiquities belonging to several civilizations. Venice is definitely not an ideal city for two single guys and clubbed with a rainy weather, the whole two days definitely could have been spent better. Though quite beautiful and culturally rich, Athens didn't impress me much. The place was real nice but just after my visit to Rome, it just didn't look that much special anymore. The Acropolis and other millennium old monuments were ofcourse the highlight of the trip.

Through out the two weeks of exploring some very fascinating cities, the most interesting aspect was the people I met. Met a very charming and real smart business journalist girl from Sao Paulo, Brazil and almost fell in love with her. Hey Juiliana, by any chance you reading this? :) Another interesting character I met was a peculiar middle aged man from California, USA who was bag-packing across Europe. Have never met a more interesting character then him, particularly of that age. This trip was real fun and now I eagerly await for my impending trip to Brazil. Rio Carnival, here I come ......

A Shabby Shrub in a Deserted Desert

There in the far deserted desert

Was lying a shabbily grown shrub

Withered and burnt in the heat

It wasn't elegant or marvellous

Neither was it beautiful nor was it neat

It was just a shabbily grown shrub

Only born to bear the brunt of the heat

Passers looked but no one noticed

All were in a hurry to cover the distance

And cared least for a shrub in a wasteland!

Lying all alone in the desolated desert

It only hoped it will rain in the end

And by its side it will have a forest

Instead of miles of just barren sand

Clouds did come but least they cared

As quickly they also wanted to reach

To the mountain range where few dared

Why waste labours on an untidy shrub

When a lush green forest could be gazed

So it rained in an already quenched forest

While the thirsty shrub helplessly stared

So Long....Thanks For All The Fish

After a loooooong wait, finally the moment came for which I had always been waiting since past 9 months. Don't think too much ;) I am only talking about the moment to bid adieu to Hazira ! I probably have created a history by spending the least time here among all the people who came for similar assignments. As I move on and recollect past few months, there would be really few moments that I will remember forever and yesterday's farewell, given to me by all my friends here, is one of them. I could not believe that I got sentimental, that too while leaving Hazira! I always thought that this will be the day I wiould just jump around in sheer ecstasy. As I always believe"Misery forges the real friendships" and this is an example where I created a number of irreplaceable friends. While I really look forward to my next assignment, the sad part is that I am going to leave these people behind and not sure how many of them will ever meet me again but I think how lucky I am to have known so many of them, that too in such a small duration, who were so hard to say goodbye to.

Thank you guys for being there.

Adios....

An Ode to Geniuses

I thought that I should compile a list of my passions and then try to think of some personalities from each of those fields that come to my mind instantaneously and I would cancel any appointment to have a lunch with them. These are not necessarily the personalities which I think are the best in their fields but these are the ones that come to my mind first whenever I think of their area of excellence. Ofcourse I am considering only alive personalities as I am not brave enough to have lunch with the dead ones. When I think about the things I am most passionate about, Music, Sports, Business and Literature would figure on the top of the list.

Music:

Jimmy Page : Sheer genius, just see him playing the guitar and you would understand what I mean. He started many bands but not to mention that Led Zeplin is the reason I adore him. Led Zeplin, one of the very few bands which did not split because of ego clashes. They split because members decided that they could not play without their late drummer. He could play Battle of Evermore on Mandolin without having touched the instrument before speaks of his talent. If I could play at even 10% of his skill level, I would be more than happy.

Eric Clapton: This guy can write, sing and play amazing guitar. All the rock stars started wearing different (absurd) looks just to support the counter culture revolution. Later these (different) looks itself became part of a culture. Then there was Eric wearing formal blazers in concerts when all others were too busy donning the "traditional" rock star looks!!! Last but not the least, this guy could beat George Harrison of legendary Beatles to take away his girl. A lot can be learned from this all rounder genius over a lunch. :P

A R Rahman: I think assimilating the fame is more difficult then getting it (though I have experienced neither :D) and this guy has done a remarkable job while being so level headed in a country where we just idolize any personality. A music prodigy who shot to fame at the age of 19 and still continues to produce probably the best music in India. The best thing I like about his music is his innovative fusion where he doesn't shy from mixing Mridhang with Electric Guitar.
Sports:

Roger Federer: Highest number of grandslams, highest number of single titles, soon to be highest number of weeks as world's best Tennis player but still see this guy. Not getting distracted and giving his best all the time. Flawless technique and rhythm makes his game a sheer pleasure to watch. Whenever he plays his backhand shot seems like he is doing a ballad in his own style on court. The remarkable demeanour and calmness makes him a real sportsmen.

Sachin: Sachin to Cricket is what Roger is to Tennis. As it is rightly said, if Cricket is a religion, Sachin is the God. The straight backfoot punch, cover drive or dancing down the track for a lofted six, his shots are executed to perfection. Despite of highest number of runs, centuries and thousands of other records (in both tests and ODIs), like Roger, Sachin epitomizes modesty.

Business:

Steve Jobs : This guy has built business empires, resurrected ailing industries and has dictated us what we want as consumers. There is something about this guy which makes him a business genius. In what is termed as the most successful second inning in the history of business, this guy made a come back to a company which he once founded and later was expelled. I think he is the only guy to have created such a massive impact on so many industries (Computers/software, Music, Movies and Electronics).
Literature

Surprisingly I have read a lot of contemporary and modern literature but when I speak the word Literature, only names of the dead ones pop up in my mind and as I mentioned earlier, I don't have lunches with dead ones. Call it my ignorance or lack of great authors in modern era, I cannot think of a single author who has had a major impact on me the way Camus, Beckett or Rand had. So I leave this space free for the time being.

खोया सवेरा

अँधेरे की काल कोठरी को चीर
आसमान की तख़्ती को पोतने को
रोज तडके निकलता वो लाल गुबारा
सवेरे सुप्रभातम बजाता मंदिर का भोम्पु
और मिटी की सौंधी खुशबु में सराबोर
पीपनि से चूल्हा धुकाती घर की विधाता
बाड़े के खूंटे से बँधी जुगाली करती गाय
और रात भर की भूख से व्याकुल
उछल उछल घंटी हिलाता वो नटखट बछड़ा
रोज की भागमभाग मे जाने कहा खो गया सब
जागे है रात भर की दिन की लालिमा नज़र आती नहीं
टाइलो मे खो गयी है मिट्टी की महक कहीं
गाय की जगह दूध की थैली ने ले ली है
अँग्रेज़ी गानो की धुन मे मशगूल है सब
सुप्रभातम किसी को भाता नहीं है

हक़ीक़त

वोह देखो चबूतरे पर खड़ी शर्मसार हक़ीक़त
नाकामी की चोट खा सिसकती हकीक़त
थक हार बोह्झिल हो खुद मे सिमटती हकीक़त
हो कर बेजार इस अपने नसीब की बेवफाई से
हक़ीक़ती मुकाम के लिए तरसती बेबस हकीक़त

अरमानो की बंद कोठरी मे पड़ी बदहवास हक़ीक़त
किस्मत के वहशी पिंजरे मे क़ैद हक़िक़त
रोजमरा की हाथापाई से लहुलुहान होती हक़िक़त
छुड़ा खुद को इस कुदरत के दरिंदे पंजे से
हक़िक़त बनने को मचलती हक़िक़त

- गजेंद्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना

Of Recession, GDP growth, Inflation and Black Swans

Of late, I have been reading and hearing too much about the recession, the negative growth rate and increasing unemployment. All these developments in the global economy has left all the economists rattled and confused. Some are predicting a double dip recession while others are talking about the recovery by Q1, 2010. All this economic mayhem and the debate following it has left me with many mind boggling questions, which I am sure are going to sound so trivial and unintelligible that nobody would even attempt to answer them. I would be really grateful if someone could help me find answer to these.

Q1) Is the negative growth really bad?

From the past 2 years, journalists across the globe are turning their throat hoarse while bringing out the stories about the negative economic growth rate, fall in GDP and so on. I do see their point but one thing which keeps bothering me is that is it really practicable to have a positive GDP growth rate forever. GDP of a country is is nothing but the total market value of services and goods produced within that country. Consider the scenario that if the GDP of whole world were to always have a positive growth rate. To achieve this, the net consumption of raw materials like iron, cement, minerals and petroleum products would also grow at a similar rate. So I always wonder is really feasible of our tiny planet earth to forever supply the required raw materials at an ever increasing rate.

Q2) Is only the moderate positive inflation desirable?

Sometime back people were real scared first to see double digit inflation rates in most of the economies and then a negative inflation rate. According them a moderate inflation is what is needed for a healthy economy. I am again confused. Consider a basic question related to demand and supply. According to my knowledge the rate of increase production (call it supply) of things has definitely outstripped the rate of increase of market size (demand) i.e. increase in the rate of production is definitely more than the rate of increase of customers (because of increase in population and change in economic conditions).

So according to me if the things are left for free markets (i.e. in absence of central banks and government's intervention) to decide, the natural direction for inflation has to be negative.

Q3) Is a country's higher GDP per capita better for its residents?

I think possessing a BMW or a Merc will not necessarily make a person happy or unhappy. To me it all depends on the reference frame of the person. If a person doesn't possess a BMW or a Merc, he will not be unhappy till the repeated commercials of TV/magazines/newspapers and society brainwash him to believe that being happy and successful means being able to buy a BMW or a Ferrari. My great grandfather never wanted to posses a Porsche because he didn't know about its existence. Probably he was happier with his bicycle.

If my analysis is correct, why ruin the earth due to all this rat race to produce more. Just ban all the damn media houses and their commercials.

Q4) Black Swan or White Swan. About whom we should care more?

After reading Taleb's Black Swan, I am even more convinced that we cannot predict highly improbable events, termed as "Black Swans" by Taleb, though they have a very high consequence. I completely agree with him in all his analysis but again the question is that do we really care of such rare event. May be Tsunami killed over 3,00,000 people in a single assault but if we were to make one choice, should we prepare our self better for terrorist attacks, which happen every now and then or prepare our self for the Tsunami which may NOT come for next 100 years. So I strongly think that the prediction business is very much needed in finance particularly but only thing is that we should not always try to justify our wrong predictions. So indeed we should care more about White Swans and make our economic system robust for them. To me even the current recession is a White Swan only as it was foreseen by many in 2001 itself when Fed reduced the interest rates to zero (Q2 becomes relevant again).

PS: Please see that I am not a socialist or communist. I am a staunch capitalist but I believe in real free markets i.e. markets devoid any external interferences of central banks and governments. Call it Utopia, if you may!!!

Quotes from Douglas Adams

It has been quite sometime since I promised myself to give tribute to a man who epitomizes literary humour. Yes, I am talking about Douglas Adams, the man who gave us the answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything . He is one of the few writers whose writing style I adore the most. Others would be Tolkien, R K Narayanan, Samule Backett, Bill Waterson, Scott Adams (joined my favorite list in the past couple of years only) but one blog is too less to write about all of them. In this blog, I am writing only on Douglas Adams and as a tribute to this legen....(wait for it)...dary writer, I am putting few of his famous quotes here:

• Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesn't it?
  
  
• If you try and take a cat apart to see how it works, the first thing you have on your hands is a non-working cat.
  
  
• The trouble with most forms of transport, he thought, is basically that not one of them is worth all the bother. On Earth – when there had been an Earth, before it was demolished to make way for a new hyperspace bypass – the problem had been with cars. The disadvantages involved in pulling lots of black sticky slime from out of the ground where it had been safely hidden out of harm's way, turning it into tar to cover the land with, smoke to fill the air with and pouring the rest into the sea, all seemed to outweigh the advantages of being able to get more quickly from one place to another – particularly when the place you arrived at had probably become, as a result of this, very similar to the place you had left, i.e. covered with tar, full of smoke and short of fish.
  
  
• I love deadlines. I like the whooshing sound they make as they fly by.
  
  
• Time is an illusion, lunchtime doubly so.
  
  
• Anything that happens, happens. Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen causes something else to happen. Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen happens again. All of this, however, doesn't necessarily happen in chronological order.
  
  
• "Life! Don't talk to me about life." (Marvin)
  
  
• "What to do if you find yourself stuck with no hope of rescue: Consider yourself lucky that life has been good to you so far. Alternatively, if life hasn't been good to you so far, which given your present circumstances seems more likely, consider yourself lucky that it won't be troubling you much longer."
  
  
• It's funny how just when you think life just can't possibly get any worse it suddenly does. (Marvin)
  
  
• Life, loathe it or ignore it, you can't like it. (Marvin)
  
  
• There is a theory which states that if anybody ever discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable. There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
  
  
• I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
  
  
• In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move.
  
  
• In those days spirits were brave, the stakes were high, men were real men, women were real women and small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri were real small furry creatures from Alpha Centauri.
  
  
• The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't.
  
  
• You live and learn. At any rate, you live.
  
  
• Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
  
  
• He felt that his whole life was some kind of dream and he sometimes wondered whose it was and whether they were enjoying it.
  
  
• Nothing travels faster than the speed of light with the possible exception of bad news, which obeys its own special laws.
  
  
• The major difference between a thing that might go wrong and a thing that cannot possibly go wrong is that when a thing that cannot possibly go wrong goes wrong it usually turns out to be impossible to get at or repair.
  
  
• Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.
  
  
• The idea that Bill Gates has appeared like a knight in shining armour to lead all customers out of a mire of technological chaos neatly ignores the fact that it was he, by peddling second-rate technology, who led them into it in the first place.
  
  
• Bypasses are devices that allow some people to dash from point A to point B very fast while other people dash form point B to point A very fast. People living at point C, being a point directly in between, are often given to wonder what's so great about point A that so many people from point B are so keen to get there, and what's so great about point B that so many people from point A are so keen to get there. They often wish that people would just once and for all decide where the hell they wanted to be.

मेरी गाड़ी छुटी जा रही थी

दूर से देख रहा था उसे
पर वो और भी दूर जा रही थी
मानो सीटी बजा बजा कर मुझे चिड़ा रही थी
कोशिश तो की बहुत मैंने उस तक पहुँचने की
पर फिर भी मेरी ट्रेन छुटी जा रही थी|

नहीं मिलेगी वो किसी अगले प्लेटफोर्म पर
यह तो मुसाफिर के दिल ने भी जाना है
पर एक मजबूर मुसाफिर को तो बस चलते जाना है
चाहे गाड़ी छुटने की टीस रह जायेगी हमेशा के लिए
पर अगली ट्रेन पकड़ अपनी मंजिल तक पहुँच जाना है|

गाड़ी को कहा होती है परवाह अधर में अटके मुसाफिर की
उसे भी तो बस बिन रुके चलते जाना होता है
मुसाफिर के लिए छूटती गाड़ी की बैचैनी को भुलाना नहीं आसान होता है
पर गाड़ी को कहा चिंता है उस मुसाफिर की बेचैनी क़ी
उसे तो बस अपने चुनिंदा मुसाफिरो के साथ चलते जाना होता है|

किसी रोज एक दिन जब एक ऐसा स्टेशन आएगा
सब मुसाफिर छोड़ गाड़ी को बढ़ जाएगे अपनी मंज़िल की और
और जब गाड़ी लौटेगी अकेले अपने गंतव्य की और
शायद सोचेगी वो भी उस बिछड़े मुसाफिर के बारे मे
जो शायद चलता उसके साथ अंतिम पड़ाव की और|

- गजेंद्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना

साथ के मुसाफिर

चले तो थे साथ बहुत दूर तक
पर अब और दूर जा ना सकेगे
शायद इतना ही होना था सफर साथ में
जो मंजिल की झलक भी पा ना सकेगे|

ओ साथ के मुसाफिर यु ही भूल ना जाना
इन गलियों को जिन पर तू चला था
माना तीन दिन में भूलना तेरी आदत है
पर अपने निशाँ इन रहो पर जरूर छोड़ जाना|

बेखबरी और आवारगी के आलम में
जब भी फ़िर गुजरूँगा उनही गलियों से
देख वक्त के साथ शीण होते उन निशानों को
शायद याद कर लूँगा साथ कटे उस सफर को|

- गजेंद्र "स्थिरप्रग्य" सिडाना

Into the Wild Again : Trek to Brahmagiri

Having done small treks quite a number of times in past few days, I was looking for some "real" trek from quite some time. Last "real" trek I did was "Kudremukh", with the memory of all the horrible leeches and slippery terrain and what not. So when Arun asked me if I wanted to join for a trek to Chembra peak, I immediately agreed but was skeptical that it could be a bit too easy (another one day trek). After some discussions we arrived on a consensus for Brahmagiri (located near Coorg). Brahmagiri had been on our radar for quite sometime but somehow it didn't materialize so far. As always happens for any of our trek, some people joined in at last moment and some ditched, effectively leaving a group of six people just like last time. Out of these six three of us (Arun, Nidhan and I) were also part of the group that went to Kudremukh while three new persons (Shruti, Tejal and Ravindra) joined us. As expected Nidhan's fascination for the name Ravi made him really happy when Ravindra joined.

After all the preparation was done (which was not so difficult this time given our prior experience), we started from KSRTC Mysore Satellite Bus stand for Gonikoppal. We reached there at 4:30 am in the morning and had to wait for half an hour to take the bus for Virajpet, where we had booked the guest house. We relaxed there for couple of hours and had some heavy breakfast. At around 9:00 am Arun, Nidhan, Ravi and I (Gajendra) left for forest officer's office to seek permission for trekking whereas Shruti and Tejal stayed at Guest house. We were ready with the permissions and a guide by 10:30 am. So we started our journey for Irupu falls (the first stop for us). We stayed there only for 15-20 mins and then started our exciting journey for the peak.

The initial plan was to reach the mid point by 1:00 pm, have lunch and then reach the guest house near Nirmala peak by evening 4:00 pm and then visit Nirmala peak. We planned to go to Brahmagiri peak next day morning. The reason for this relaxed planning was that Arun told us that climbing Brahmagiri peak is very difficult (with elevation of 75 deg in last half km) and only 5 out 25 people from STI could make it to the peak, when they visited couple of months back. But this wasn't to be the case.

Thanks to the excellent group we had become, the time just flew by. We reached the mid point much before we had planned, ate some stuff and started for the forest ranger's guest house. We reached there at 2:30 p

m much before our own expectations. We relaxed there for sometime and by 3:30 pm we thought we had enough time to go to Brahmagiri peak and return. So instead of going to Nirmala peak, we directly started for Brahmagiri. Since till this point only there is deep forest and abovethis there are grasslands, we were worried a little about sun. I wished that if there were few drops of rain, just enough to cool the weather but yet not make it slippery, it would be great and there it was. It seemed like god had all of a sudden decided to consider very few good deeds we had ever done and reward us for it then and there itself. The moment we started, those wonderful drops full of life and energy were waiting for us.

The weather was so good and atmosphere was so full of pure oxygen making our oxygen deficient lungs so elated that not remembering our trekking anthem "Run Maadi Run" was impossible. So Nidhan and I decided to run a bit and soon left other four far behind. By the time we realized, we had already taken a wrong trail, which led us at the peak of another hill (Brahmagiri was still visible far away) with the descend that was so steep that the moment we looked at it we were sure that we were on the wrong trail. The reason being that if this were the correct path, its unlikely that even 5 out of 25 could make it to the top. Somehow we managed to descend and then ascend again to reach on the right trail leading to the summit of our ultimate destination, the Brahmagiri peak.

We looked at the watch and it was 4:23 pm. Run Maadi feeling was still so prevalent in our minds that Nidhan set a target of 4:45 pm to reach the peak whereas I set the modest target of 5:00pm. Surprisingly, what was thought to be so difficult, we could do in 12 mins and we were on the peak by 4:35 pm itself. After about half an hour, we saw the signs of our guide and other four companions, who also climbed the peak without too much difficulty. Reaching the peak was a feeling which completely overwhelmed us and we just rejuvenated at the thought having achieved what we set out for.

Though we wanted to stay longer, we had to start our return journey at 5:30 pm as it was getting dark. While descending, I was thinking that this trek was pretty easy when compared to Kumara Parvata or Kudremukh. In KP, it was the camping in the night which gave us the thrill whereas it were leeches which made our trek to Kudremukh so memorable but there was no such thing till now in this trek. It was more or less a simple beautiful trek for 12 km upwards which we easily finished running, singing and eating. Here also it seems god was just in mood to grant even smallest of my wishes. As it got a bit dark, our guide pointed out a group of four wild elephant about two hundred metres away. Knowing that elephant has a very strong sense of smell and hearing, we started walking as quietly as possibly. We had passed only a hundred more metres, we saw one more elephant again couple of hundred metres away. It was still okay till I noticed it moving and every one was dumbstruck. Every could feel the adrenaline rushing through there body. Luckily the elephant turned and went away from us. So we were all relieved and I thought that all is well that ends well but that was not all.

We had barely walked another half a km and reached near a stream, when our guide stopped us and told us that he had just now seen a tiger crossing our trail. Probably the cat might have come out to drink water from that stream. He showed us a very fresh tiger pug mark and we could still smell a typical smell (zoo kind) probably meaning that the big cat was still around. The thought of this itself passed shimmers through our spines. All of us seized talking, singing and even would have seized breathing also if it were in our hands. Thankfully our preparation was thorough and we had good enough number of torches and our guide was very experienced, which helped us find our way back to the guest house through the jungle. We all breathed a sigh of relief when we entered the concrete walls of the guest house, safe from any wild animal.

We recovered from our thrills and then decided to cooksomething. We prepared noodlesand scrambled eggs with bread, which tasted excellent after the days hard work. Finally, we decided to have bonfire despite of the fear of wild cat still reigning in our minds. We sang, shared jokes and had some excellent time around the fire. As expected, Nidhan didn't miss any chance to pull Ravi's leg. After an hour or so we all slept only to wake up next day.

In the morning, we made some excellent tea and scrambled egg as breakfast. In the morning also Arun spotted a wild elephant just 10m away from him. We wanted to go to Pakshipatalam to do some bird watching but later decided against it. So we started our journey to base in Virajpet, where we reached by 12:00 pm. Since we still had sometime, we decided to go to Rajiv Gandhi National Park at Nagarhole where we saw some deer, elephants, bison etc. We started our return journey from Gonikoppal. Just like my past experiences, again I was amazed by the hospitality of rural Karnataka. While sitting in the bus, those two days were still flashing before my eyes again and I was feeling a bit sad that this remarkable journey was coming to an end. On my way back, my feelings could probably be best summarized by Lord Byron's following lines:

There is a pleasure in the pathless woods;
There is a rapture on the lonely shore;
There is society, where none intrudes,
By the deep sea, and music in its roar;
I love not man the less, but Nature more...

शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।

दूर तक फैला है अँधेरा
रौशनी क्यों नजर आती नहीं
क्या मीलो लंबी है यह सुरंग
जो तारों कि भी झिलमिल नजर आती नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।

व्यर्थ ही चला जा रह हूँ मैं
कहा है जाना पता नहीं
थका हारा हूँ मैं कब से
कोई आश्रय क्यों नजर आता नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।

थकी है जगी है आंखें बहुत देर से
पर नींद फिर क्यों आती नहीं
गुजर गया है तूफ़ान
पर करार दिल को क्यों आता नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।

कहते है जिन्दगी में सब कुछ है
पर बात इसमे क्यों नजर आती नहीं
ऐसा लगता है जीवन बेवफा है
तो मौत फिर क्यों गले लगाती नहीं
कहते है रात के बाद दिन आता है
पर शायद इस रात कि सुबह नहीं।